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How do I backtest the right way?

admin — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:52:54 +0000

In my opinion backtesting can be a very powerful tool if used correctly.
The problem is that many traders over-use the functions provided by the different backtesting software packages and think more is better. Many so-called system developers try to imply that the longer you backtest the better and more robust your system will be. That’s not always true.
Let me use the e-mini S&P as an example. In 2000 the average daily range was 100-150 ticks per day; in 2004 it was only 40-60 ticks per day. If you backtest any trend-following daytrading system in the e-mini S&P you will see that it worked perfectly until 2002 and then suddenly fell apart. It seems that there are no more intraday trends. That’s not surprising as the daily range of the e-mini S&P decreased by more than 50%.
What happened?
There are a couple of reasons. Probably the most important one is the introduction of the Pattern Day Trading Rule in August and September 2001by the NYSE and NASD: If a trader executes four or more day trades within a five business day period then he must maintain a minimum equity of $25,000 in his margin account at all times. Because of this rule made traders stopped online daytrading equities and started trading the e-mini S&P future instead.
Look at the sudden increase in volume in the e-mini S&P in the beginning of 2001:

Many of these stock daytraders used methods to scalp the market for a few penny. Using the e-mini S&P they suddenly had a much higher leverage, paying less commissions, and their methods were extremely profitable.
Unfortunately, these scalping methods kill an intraday trend almost instantly, making almost every trend-following approach fail.
Another reason for the dramatic change of the market was the introduction of the automated online daytrading strategy execution in TradeStation. In 2002 TradeStation’s customers who were using this feature increased by 268%. Overbought/Oversold strategies became very popular and when the market made an attempt to trend these online daytrading strategies immediately established a contrary position.
Conclusion
When backtesting you need to know these things. It’s not enough to just run a system on as much data as possible; it’s important to know the underlying market conditions.
In non-trending markets like the e-mini S&P you need to use trend-fading systems, and in trending markets like commodities you should use trend-follwing methods.
And that’s when clever backtesting helps you:
If your backtesting tells you that a trend-following method worked in 2000-2002, but doesn’t work in 2003 and 2004 then you should not use this strategy right now.And vice versa: When you see that a trend-fading method produced nice profits in 2003, 2004 and 2005, then trade it.
I haven’t yet seen an online daytrading strategy that works in all market conditions: trending and non-trending. Usually a strategy works very well in ONE market condition (e.g. trending) and produces small losses in the OTHER market condition. That’s why you need to alter daytrading strategies.
And THAT’S where backtesting can help you.

Day Trading or Investing for the Long Haul?

admin — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 02:34:58 +0000

Among those who buy and sell stocks there is an ongoing debate about whether the most profitable approach to stock market trading is short or long term investment. And the two sides rarely reach agreement, because one side is rather conservative in its approach, whereas the other has a more radical and freewheeling attitude. Day traders are usually considered the mavericks of the trading world, and they are known for taking gamblers risks and making huge profits in short amounts of time sometimes buying and selling the same stock several times in a single day. Those who prefer to buy and hold their stocks follow a more risk-averse path, and cite historical trends to back up their claim that their method is actually more reliable and is the real shortcut to wealth.

Most investors can enjoy the best of both worlds, by setting aside some of their money for day trades, and the balance of it for longer-term investment. Because day trading tends to be more volatile, and can result in quick profits or fast losses, most of us would be advised to put only as much of our investment capital as we can comfortably afford to lose, into this kind of trading strategy. That way, even if you encounter a worse case scenario, it will not adversely impact your overall financial situation.

There are pros and cons to both styles of investing. Those who do day trades enjoy the fact that they can get in and out of the market quickly, and make money without waiting for the results. But any kind of stock market investment strategy requires research into the companies you decide to invest in, and research can take time to do. If you are buying and selling so fast that you dont have time to do adequate background analysis, day trading may not be a prudent approach.

Investing in companies that provide slow but steady returns is a time-tested approach to the stock market. In fact, most historical evidence supports the idea that if you buy quality stocks and hold them for long periods of time at least five years or more you will do very well in the stock market. For that reason, those who are young enough to have time on their side would probably be wise to buy some stocks and sock them away for retirement.

With most investments, it is usually best to diversify to minimize risk and maximize potential gains. One way to accomplish this in the stock market is to employ both strategies, and use a portion of your investment capital for short-term trades, while leaving another portion in long term investments. If one basket of investments doesnt do well, the other probably will. And if both do well, you will enjoy twice as much success.

AVOIDING DAY TRADER STATUS WITH BETTER TRADES

admin — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 10:45:23 +0000

Due to an overwhelming request of questions about Day Trader Status I have decided to write this newsletter to look at these issues. Whether you know about it or not, you don’t want to accidentally learn about Day Trader Status by a notice from your brokerage firm saying that you are now tagged as a Day Trader!

WHAT IS A DAY TRADER?

A Day Trader is someone who does four intra-day trades in five consecutive trading days. Let me address some terms here to help you understand this better:

Intra-day trade: A trade that is opened and closed in the same trading day (round trip).

Five Consecutive Trading Days: These are calendar days that the market is open, all in a row. For example:

If the market was open on Monday through Friday that would be five consecutive days.

Then we would have Tuesday through Monday for the next five consecutive days (unless Monday was a holiday in which case it would then be Tuesday through Tuesday.

Next, we would have Wednesday through Tuesday, and so on. The key is five trading days in a row.

HOW TO AVOID IT

One of my favorite students, Debi D, taught me to use a calendar to record my intra-day trades. By placing an “X” on the day

you do intra-day trades, (2 X’s if you do two, 3 X’s if you do 3 in that day) you can avoid accidentally getting to four by

looking at your calendar. Make sure you mark the days the market is closed on your calendar.

WHY DOES IT MATTER?

I thought it mattered a lot, but after my research for this newsletter, it appears there actually are some great benefits

being classified as a “Day Trader” if the $25,000 is not an issue for you. Basically there are two issues at hand:

ISSUE ONE: Your brokerage firm will likely impose the NASD requirements of maintaining at least $25,000 in your trading

account – and you have 5 days to comply. If you have this kind of money there is no issue! However, if you are starting out

with limited funds to trade it could be a big issue! One important note – always ask for one time of forgiveness! Many

students told me they did and the status was removed – so ASK! There may be a way around it, but I am not sure. From my

reading of the requirements, the penalty for not complying is that you are subject to cash only trades, (which are what we

were doing anyway with options)!

There is a really incredible benefit though if you are tagged a Day Trader and maintain the $25,000 minimum value in

your account. You may be eligible for day-trading margin, which is 4 times account buying power. WOW DO I EVER LIKE THIS

ONE!! This buying power may only be used intra-day and may not be held past market close. Orders exceeding Day-Trading Buying

Power will be rejected.

ISSUE TWO: Tax Consequences with the IRS

Actually upon my research into the IRS Publications it does not appear as bad as I thought. A tax firm specializing in trading activity, says:
o They allow a full deduction of all trading losses in the year they occur, thereby circumventing the historical $3,000 net capital loss rule.
o They allow full current expensing of trading expenses without limitation, thereby circumventing the limitation on miscellaneous itemized deductions.
o They enable the active trader to still take advantage of the beneficial long term capital gain rules.

o They enable the active trader to circumvent the restrictive “Wash Sale” rules normally applied to investors, thereby alleviating a huge record-keeping nightmare.

o They allow the active trader to deduct losses on open as well as closed positions.

Continuing on with my IRS research:

You would report your trader’s activity as a business on Schedule C of your 1040, possibly allowing all the deductions for your classes and tools, versus a limitation on deduction for passive trading that would have had to be reported on your

Schedule A with a 2% AGI limitation deduction. But here is the sweet deal: you can still elect to report your gain or loss on

Schedule D as a capital gain unless you made the mark-to-market election, (which has you claim the income as ordinary income on Form 4797 instead of Schedule D – see IRS Publication 550 for more information on this). Just to be safe, you better talk to an accountant that specializes in stock market trading. Being a retired accountant, I want to tell you that most accountants will not know how to treat your trading income properly – you need to understand this.

The proper classification of your investment activities is important to determine how income and expenses are to be reported.

Traders that buy and sell securities frequently can report their purchases and sales result in capital gain and loss, and their deductible expenses are trade or business expenses.

Happy Trading!

Darlene Powell with Better Trades

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How do I backtest the right way?

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